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Abotaleb, I S and El-adaway, I H (2017) Construction Bidding Markup Estimation Using a Multistage Decision Theory Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Chang, C and Ko, J (2017) New Approach to Estimating the Standard Deviations of Lognormal Cost Variables in the Monte Carlo Analysis of Construction Risks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Francis, A (2017) Simulating Uncertainties in Construction Projects with Chronographical Scheduling Logic. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Franz, B, Leicht, R, Molenaar, K and Messner, J (2017) Impact of Team Integration and Group Cohesion on Project Delivery Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Gambatese, J A, Pestana, C and Lee, H W (2017) Alignment between Lean Principles and Practices and Worker Safety Behavior. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Huang, C and Wong, C K (2017) Discretized Cell Modeling for Optimal Facility Layout Plans of Unequal and Irregular Facilities. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Li, D and Lu, M (2017) Automated Generation of Work Breakdown Structure and Project Network Model for Earthworks Project Planning: A Flow Network-Based Optimization Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Moussavi Nadoushani, Z S, Hammad, A W A and Akbarnezhad, A (2017) Location Optimization of Tower Crane and Allocation of Material Supply Points in a Construction Site Considering Operating and Rental Costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Patel, D A and Jha, K N (2017) Developing a Process to Evaluate Construction Project Safety Hazard Index Using the Possibility Approach in India. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

RazaviAlavi, S and AbouRizk, S (2017) Genetic Algorithm–Simulation Framework for Decision Making in Construction Site Layout Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Swei, O, Gregory, J and Kirchain, R (2017) Probabilistic Approach for Long-Run Price Projections: Case Study of Concrete and Asphalt. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Cointegration; Econometrics; Forecasting; Time-series; Pavements; Quantitative methods;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001211
  • Abstract:
    Practitioners increasingly use pavement management systems for determining the allocation of resources for multidecade investments. One important and uncertain input that will affect decisions in these frameworks is future changes in cost for rehabilitation and reconstruction actions. Despite this, existing paradigms overlook its consideration largely because little research to date has evaluated the performance of forecasting over extended time horizons. Therefore, the contribution of this study is the demonstration (via a case study) of the long-term fidelity of probabilistic price projections relative to current practice. Two paving materials, asphalt and concrete, are projected through a probabilistic hybrid forecasting model that convolves conventional forecasts for underlying constituent prices and a long-term price equilibrium relationship between commodities. Out-of-sample forecasts are conducted to test the performance of the proposed model in estimating future prices in terms of their (1) expectation and (2) prediction interval. Results indicate that the hybrid model performs similarly to current practice in terms of expectation while, and perhaps more importantly, providing theoretical uncertainty bounds that matched well with future volatility. The latter result suggests the probabilistic forecasting models developed could potentially augment current pavement management tools, allowing decision-makers to make more informed allocation choices.

Umer, W, Li, H, Szeto, G P Y and Wong, A Y L (2017) Identification of Biomechanical Risk Factors for the Development of Lower-Back Disorders during Manual Rebar Tying. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Zhang, S, Bogus, S M, Lippitt, C D and Migliaccio, G C (2017) Estimating Location-Adjustment Factors for Conceptual Cost Estimating Based on Nighttime Light Satellite Imagery. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).